Play the Game: Game Analysis

Notes by Joe Edley

Stefan Rau (CT) vs Seth Lipkin (MA): Fifth game in the Best-of-7 Finals at the 2008 SCRABBLE Beanpot Championship (http://sites.google.com/site/2008scrabblebeanpot/home-1). This championship was an unrated invitational match-play double-elimination tournament created, organized, and directed by Rod MacNeil. The tournament began in September 2008, and this final game was held on March 8, 2009. To play along, reading the analysis as you play, go to www.cross-tables.com.

(Note: All simulations, done using Quackle, are at least 10K iterations.)

1. SR: ABEKOOT EBOOK 32 H8 T: 32

Great play! The only reasonable alternative is BETOOK H7 34, which is past tense of BETAKE, and doesn’t take an S hook. The extra two points are tempting, but the more balanced AT leave after EBOOK is more attractive to me. Simulation shows both of these plays to be about equal.

1. SL: AIIJOVZ JIAO 11E 22 T: 22

This is a good way to dump two vowels along with one of his high-pointers. However, the extra points for either ZOA 10F 32 or ZOO G7 30 are slightly more favorable (by .2% winning chances). In such cases one can ask oneself if the rack saved (IOVZ) is worth 8 or 10 pt. more than either AIIJV (after ZOO) or IIJV (after ZOA), and the answer is no.

2. SR: AAGHMTY GAMY I6 30 T: 62

Very good! This is better than the next best play, GAMAY I6 27, because the leave, ATH is more balanced.

2. SL: IINOVZ? VIZOrING 6B 78 T: 100

He finds the only bingo.

3. SR: AEEFHNT FANE 7C 34 T: 96

A very good overlapping play that does just about everything right. However, FEZ D4 30 gives slightly better winning chances due to the very nice leave: AEHNT. He’ll bingo often enough more quickly after this play than after FANE, and that gives FEZ a decided advantage.

3. SL: AAAIIPU EXCH. AAAIIPU 0 T: 100

It’s right to exchange with these weak tiles, but the P is actually a useful letter in this position. That ZA will look nice with a P after it, so he should keep the P, and an A to balance it. Exchanging AAIIU is at least a one percent winning improvement over exchange all. Plus, by exchanging 5, he gives his opponent pause to consider that he might have an S or a blank, which may induce a mistake.

4. SR: EHLNOST HOT 5E 28 T: 124

Best. On the plus side are the way it closes the board and scores well. On the minus side are the alternatives that open up and leave a better combo to draw from: HOLE or HELO 5E both open up a nice bingo spot on Row 5, and NST, despite leaving no vowels, is a very bingo-prone leave, better than ELNS (the L and N are often not the best of friends), and frequently will bingo sooner than opponent, who, as Rau knows, just traded 7.

4. SL: AGHILRT HAO 10F 29 T: 129

While this is nice on the points side of the equation, the leave is weaker (GILRT), that some alternative plays, like GALA G8 23 (HIRT), which will usually bingo earlier than HAO will.

5. SR: EILLNNS KNELL 12H 18 T: 142

This is by far the best play. He has an S and should try to take advantage of it by opening a nice S spot for himself. No other play both scores as well and improves the board in his favor.

5. SL: GILPRST LISP 8A 50 T: 179

Of course! Taking advantage of his reacquired P.

6. SR: IINOSUU exch. IOUU 0 T: 142

Or exchange IUU, which leaves the synergistic IONS combo. While the O isn’t usually a good tile to keep when exchanging, here it shows good value, and makes the smaller exchange a slight favorite.

6. SL: GGRTTTX exch. GGTTT 0 T: 179

Here, again, he might consider getting rid of the X as well. While not a mistake outright, he’ll have better bingo chances after exchanging GGTTX (saving RT), and slightly better winning chances as well, which is confirmed by simulation. This board isn’t particularly friendly to an X.

7. SR: ABINNSY YABBY 9E 32 T: 174

Best by far! The second best play, INBY B8 15, keeping a very nice leave, sacrifices too many points.

7. SL: AIIORUX UXORIAL K6 28 T: 207

Now he’s very happy he kept the X! Great play!

8. SR: EEINNS? ENgINES 13B 76 T: 250

Missing a beautiful overlap: vENINES L4 82.

8. SL: DDEITUW WITED B10 34 T: 241

Best. There’s nothing better than taking these points and getting rid of the W.

9. SR: CDEIRRV RIVED 10J 15 T: 265

VIRID in the same place scores 6pt. more, and does not take an S back-hook.

9. SL: ADERTUW OUTED 8K 21 T: 262

This is a very interesting position to be in. He has two good alternatives: The first is UT N6 10. This play might look very dangerous, but given that there are only two As unseen (for ETA), and no Hs (for ETH), and almost no good hooks for NU remaining to be played, the bottom row is safer than it looks. Because he has an A, he is likely to be able to take advantage of the opening before his opponent, and in such a close game, this slight advantage may be all he needs to eke out a win. However, his second choice, AW A14 18 is definitely safer, and gives him immediate chances for bingos to the E or D on 8N and 8O. Simulation suggests that AW is slightly superior, though both simulate slightly better than OUTED.

10. SR: CEIMRST MIC 4C 23 T: 288

A very good play, keeping the excellent ERST super-leave. However, given his terrific leave, and with the game unclear, he can take even better advantage of his rack by simply play CORE F5 6. EIMRST will draw a playable bingo more than half the time. This simulates as much better than MIC. Despite the opening you’re giving your opponent, it’s unlikely that he’ll be able to take advantage of it without your coming back with a bingo.

10. SL: AEEFORW WOE B2 20 T: 282

Thematically, it’s better to play WOE at 3A because both his F and R plays onto 3A and will in many cases, be point grabbers there. WOE 3A is the simulation choice, and I prefer it as well. I’d rather have my opponent play through the W then play off high-pointers down the side on column A.

11. SR: EEERRST ROE 3A 14 T: 302

It’s interesting that in the realm of human games, WOE looks like it might be a setup for QAT. Given that, his ROE may be quite appropriate over the board. However, simulation likes ER 14F 10. This play may look dangerous, but there are few tiles remaining that go in back of NE and with three As left, and no Ss or blanks, it’s likely that opponent will not have a huge score there, and even if he does score 30 or more points, he’ll have many bingo chances to come back. Tough to play it over the board, but if he doesn’t think that WOE was a QAT setup, he should probably go for it.

As a general rule, being aggressive in these types of positions, with such a bingo-prone leave, is going to pay off more often than you might think.

11. SL: ACEFLRT FAR A1 23 T: 305

Good play, preventing QAT, but Quackle likes ELF J12 14, due, no doubt, to the ACERT leave, which will bingo quite often using the E and D on Row 8. Given that Rau seems to be playing for a bingo, and only played two last turn, it’s unlikely that he has QAT.

12. SR: EEGRSTU GESTURED O1 83 T: 385

Finally getting his bingo!

12. SL: ACELRST SCARLETS 3H 76 T: 381

Back atcha! The nine, RACLETTES for 76 is pretty, but doesn’t accomplish what his bingo does—which is to give us more opportunities for more points next turn. True, SCARLETS leaves the board more open, but it leaves it more open for both players. After RACLETTES, we’re likely to see the lower left of the board blocked, giving us fewer chances for good plays.

SR: DNOOPQT QAT J2 32 T: 417

And with this beautiful Q spot Rau wins the first Beanpot Championship!

13. SL: AGIRU GULAR L1 16 T: 397

14. SR: DNOOP OPED M1 17 T: 434

He had the nice out play of ENDOPOD N8 22, but given he knew he had the win, he may not have been looking so carefully for his best play.

14. SL: I TIE m8 4 T: 401 + 4 (NO) = 405

Final Score: SR: 434 SL: 405

Joe Edley is a three-time National SCRABBLE Champion and the author of numerous books, including Everything SCRABBLE (Simon & Schuster/Pocket Books), SCRABBLE Puzzles, Vol. 1-4 (Sterling), and SCRABBLE Calendar (Workman), all available at http://www.amazon.com.